Lighter and edgeX. Everyone must be involved. Both projects have coincidentally announced a "Q4 TGE". So???? We can't just sit back and watch this interesting development..... I mentioned that I often use Surf, and I analyzed it using the Surf tool. @Surf_Copilot The questions are: "Mainly comparing with Hyperliquid, estimate the expected value of Lighter exchange." "Mainly comparing with Hyperliquid, estimate the expected value of edgeX exchange." Let's go straight to the analysis. --- 1. edgeX Exchange vs Hyperliquid Valuation @edgeX_exchange Expected Value: Based on P/S: about $2.3B Based on TVL: about $4.6B Including growth adjustments, a range of $3–5B is possible. Key Metric Comparison (edgeX vs Hyperliquid) TVL: $165.7M vs $685.8M (0.24x) 24h Trading Volume: $2B vs $3.38B (0.59x) 7-Day Revenue: $5.04M vs $28.32M (0.18x) Annual Revenue: $177M vs $1.153B (0.15x) Weekly Trading Volume Growth Rate: +42.7% vs +0.8% — edgeX leads Premium Factors: Mobile UX, rapid growth, CEX-level interface, 54k user base Risks: Liquidity dependence, L2 technology constraints, undisclosed token revenue structure, intensified competition Investment Insights: Conservative scenario: $2–3B, aggressive scenario: $4–5B The 'point farming before token launch' timing offers the best risk-reward ratio. 2. Lighter Exchange Expected Valuation vs Hyperliquid @Lighter_xyz Expected FDV (Fully Diluted Value): Base scenario: $500M–800M Upside scenario: $4B–6B Key Metrics (as of August 2025): Daily Trading Volume: $6.5B (about 29% of Hyperliquid) TVL: $316.9M vs $685.8M (compared to Hyperliquid) Funding: Major investors like a16z, Lightspeed participating Valuation Framework: TVL Multiple: Applying GMX level: $82M Applying dYdX level: $612M Applying Hyperliquid level: $21.2B When adjusted based on trading volume: a level of $4–5B is possible (considering wash trading) Strengths: Low/no fee model, ZK-based technology, rapid TVL growth, strong investor backing Risks: Undisclosed tokenomics, uncertainty of sustainability after incentives end, revenue model not proven Surf+1 Final Summary: edgeX: "Based on P/S $2.3B, based on TVL $4.6B… reflecting growth rates, it could reach $3–5B. Strong in mobile UX and speed, but liquidity and tokenomics structure are cautionary factors." Lighter: "Base FDV $500–800M, could reach $4–6B on the upside. Strengths in no-fee and ZK technology, solid investors. Key variables are regular trading volume and revenue model post-launch." -- But even this analysis was too lengthy in the original Surf text, so I put it into ChatGPT and reorganized it. For those curious, feel free to read the original Surf text directly. The analysis was really~ delicious.