1d ago
Theo Pendle YT vs Morpho Windmill
[Conclusion]
In the short term, YT efficiency is good, but per dollar points, Morpho Windmill is better.
[Pendle thBILL YT]
thBILL YT gives 2394 Theo Points for a $1 purchase until maturity on November 27.
However, at maturity, the principal becomes $0, and the interest until then will be about $0.18.
In other words, you get 2394 Points for $0.82,
so the efficiency is about 2919 Points / $
[Morpho Windmill]
In the case of Morpho Windmill, if you rotate 10 times with an LTV of 94% for $1, it results in about 8.2 times leverage.
Considering the current loan interest of 7.05%, you will pay about 2.7% of the principal = $0.027 in interest until November 27.
And you can earn a total of 344 Theo Points.
In other words, you get 344 points for $0.027,
so the efficiency is about 12740 Points / $
[Profit Comparison]
'If we assume the value of the Theo airdrop at 14% APR'
= FDV $331M / 5% airdrop basis
With YT purchase, 82.1% Loss, 87.3% profit
= Total ROI expected at 5.2%
With Morpho Windmill, 2.7% Loss, 12.5% profit
= Total ROI expected at 9.8%
However, if the FDV and airdrop percentage increase, Pendle will become significantly advantageous.
For example, if FDV is $660M / 10% airdrop,
we can assume an average APR of 56%,
then
Pendle YT will have ROI of 267%
Morpho Windmill will have ROI of 40%.
I guess... I should at least try YT for now.
However, if the TVL increases or the TGE is prolonged, the yield will naturally decrease.
#NFA #DYOR please.
2d ago
Theo FDV Estimate
Theo is currently an RWA protocol that uses T-Bills, which are U.S. Treasury bonds, as its source of income. Of course, it is said that various RWA assets will be handled in addition to government bonds, but for now, I have estimated the FDV based on T-Bills compared to other projects.
[Investment Amount Comparison]
Currently, the T-Bill RWA projects include Ondo, Usual, and the recently listed OpenEden.
Expectations for the RWA sector are high, and particularly, Ondo had a high FDV at the time of TGE, which has continued to rise, reaching $8B now. This has led to Usual and OpenEden also forming very high initial FDVs.
Therefore, the average FDV for these three projects is calculated to be $2.5B at TGE. Even excluding OpenEden due to the recent frenzy, it is calculated to be $1B.
[TVL Comparison]
In terms of TVL, it feels a bit calmer. Based on TGE, it is calculated to be about $330M.
[Changes in the Situation]
Theo's current TVL is $117M. The transition to T-Bills and the full-scale staking began this August, and since it is a point system per dollar rather than an Epoch system, point inflation is also expected to be low.
From this perspective, even if only 5% of $330M is airdropped, it results in $16.5M, which yields about 14% ROI.
The APR will likely vary depending on the staking duration and strategy (YT, windmill, etc.).
Even looking at just the 14% APR, it shows quite a decent YT/windmill efficiency along with the base interest rate. I will summarize this in the next post.
A couple of disappointing points are:
1. The lack of separation between $1 pegged assets and interest-accumulating assets (Yield Bearing Assets), resulting in a low internal interest rate.
2. Not adopting a strategy to secure liquidity and boost TVL through Pendle by differentiating points for DEX LP and Pendle YT/LP.
That's about it.
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