The New Jersey Vote By Mail file is in for 10/01.
We continue down the same road; Republicans expand their return rate edge; Democrats build the firewall (it's back, but only in NJ!).
We're 24 days out from early in-person voting, but to me, EIP will be the most telling data point, and it's a simple one. For the Ciattarelli campaign to have a chance, they need to see Republicans outvote Democrats in the 8-day EIP voting period.
Easier said than done, because it has never happened before in New Jersey. Early in-person voting has only been around since 2021, and while Republicans were close to outvoting Democrats last year, Democrats have always been able to build on their raw turnout edge.
It's not the only thing Republicans need to have happen, but you're unlikely to convince me Sherrill is in any trouble unless R's pull that feat off first.
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